“Reaction: UK economy returns to growth as GDP rises by 0.3%”

Jan 17, 2024 | Economy, Inflation

An independent (financial adviser’s) view

OK, this sounds like good news, doesn’t I? Last month’s figures showed a fall in GDP, and three of those in a row equals ‘technical recession’. These latest figures show we’re growing; by not a lot, but would guess that most would take it. Today, however, we heard that inflation is up, rather than down. By not a lot, in fact only as much as the economy has grown, but still up rather than down, and what’s going on in the Red Sea is predicted to make lots of stuff more expensive still.  The key factor is whether interest rates will have to go up again, to in theory stop us from being able to afford that stuff that we can’t afford anyway because it’s already so expensive. Confused? I’d say even the economists are most of the time. My best guess is that they won’t go up further, just might not go down very quickly. Pain, gain, etc….

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“Tariffs through time: have they ever worked?”

“Tariffs through time: have they ever worked?”

History may not repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. Is what Trump is doing as ‘unprecedented’ as every headline proclaims? I’m sure other wiser writers have spotted some of these historical echoes, but let’s remember some headlines from US history.

“Stocks surge and yields stabilise as Trump tariffs paused”

“Stocks surge and yields stabilise as Trump tariffs paused”

“The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me. I’ve always been great with money, I’ve always been great with jobs, that’s what I do”, said the man himself about (of course) himself. And, yes, one tweet, if we’re still allowed to use that old Woke term, on Truth Social can indeed send markets firmly up as well as down.